We are familiar with the name Wagner. It is the paramilitary organization and private military company of the Russian state. Its initial activity was the training of Russian separatists in Donbas after the Crimea annexation. Its true fame, however, is owed to its operations in Syria and Libya.During the post-Cold War era, this paramilitary organization, which is a part of proxy warfare, worked to ensure the survival of the Assad regime in Syria and supported the seizure of power by Hafter in Libya. We learned about its presence in Syria when a 300-strong Wagner convoy was bombed by US aircraft. In Libya, there were talks of British special forces seeking Turkish intervention against Wagner, only to receive the response, “Don’t involve us in your fight.”Over time, Wagner expanded its operations and pursued Russian interests, particularly in Africa. The organization fought alongside the Russian army in the war in Ukraine, aligning with its mission.Then, what happened in Ukraine unfolded. As the war dragged on, tensions within the Russian defense line came to the surface. In February, we learned of a major conflict between the paramilitary organization and the Russian Ministry of Defense through the explosive statements of Wagner’s owner, Prigozhin. Prigozhin directly targeted two figures: Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. He accused them of corruption and flawed planning.This crisis caught the attention of Western intelligence services and has deepened day by day. Since Prigozhin’s initial statement, we have witnessed the reciprocal moves of both sides. Some of these moves were made by intelligence agencies seeking to create cracks in the Russian defense line.The world was shocked when, on May 6th, Prigozhin announced the withdrawal of his troops from Bakhmut, which is critical to Russia. Just a few days later, US intelligence leaked information to the press stating that Prigozhin would disclose Russian positions to Ukraine. Despite denying this allegation, Prigozhin did not back down. He claimed to have captured and interrogated a Russian commander, whom he accused of being a target for Wagner.When the Russian Ministry of Defense realized that Wagner had spiraled out of control, they took action to dismantle the paramilitary structure. They made it mandatory for all volunteers to sign contracts with the Russian army. This incident marked the breaking point in the Russian defense line.At this point, Prigozhin initiated a rebellion on Friday morning, claiming that the Russian army had bombed Wagner forces. The Wagner forces first captured Rostov, located on the southern border. They then headed north towards Moscow, covering a staggering 780 km in just 24 hours, without encountering any significant resistance, apart from helicopter downings in Pavlovsk. When they were 200 km away from Moscow, Belarus President Lukashenko intervened, putting an end to the “march for justice,” and they turned back.There are significant questions surrounding this matter. The most important question is what Prigozhin relied on to target Moscow. Without air support and guarantees, one does not embark on such a venture in the midst of a war-torn country, risking betrayal and even death, especially with a force of 25,000. It is certain that Prigozhin received a green light, either internally or externally. It is said that he ended the rebellion because he made agreements with certain commanders, but the promises were not fulfilled.The second important question is who gave the green light to Prigozhin. If these individuals are still within the system, it becomes a headache for Putin. Russia, which is engaged in the war in Ukraine, is now more vulnerable.The third question pertains to Putin himself. It raises a significant question as to why he did not intervene in this tension that erupted months ago. On the other hand, the fundamental criterion in the use of proxy forces is that they operate away from the army and established areas of control. The question of “how did Putin make this tactical mistake by deploying Wagner to the front lines” remains on the table.The future of the Ukraine war is another unknown. As we know, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive but is facing a serious weapon shortage. One of my sources mentioned that “weapons have run out in Europe.” In fact, NATO Defense Ministers recently gathered in Brussels to find a solution to this issue. Baykar was among the companies invited to these meetings. The rebellion in Russia has fueled the appetite of the Western alliance and Ukraine, who are seeking weapons and ammunition to put pressure on Russia. The fact that Russia cannot control its rear lines is evident.Whichever way you look at it, this rebellion will be one of the turning points in the Ukraine war. I eagerly await the day when the events behind the scenes will come to light.
